After two and a half months of confinement by the coronavirus, economic activities return and with it, crime will be back. Criminal groups have seen their incomes decrease as a result of confinement, so it is expected that, as mobility restrictions are lifted and economic activity is registered, crimes will pick up, which will go in the opposite direction to what has been happened in the last months.

According to the Executive Secretary (SESNSP) numbers, the total amount of crimes committed nationwide decreased 33.9% in April compared to the month of March. Likewise, the total amount of thefts decreased 33.3% during the same period and in 39.8% compared with the month of January. It is probable that the social distancing measures and the closure of the economic activity influenced the crime reduction.

However, this reduction that surpassed the 30% in the total crime incidence and thefts, was not reflected in the same way on the homicides. The Secretary’s figures showed a reduction of only a 5.5% in the homicides and of 10.5% in the femicides in comparison with the previous month. And if this is compared with the beginning of the year, the number of homicides increased in 4.8%. Why are there such differences between the crime reduction and the reduction of violence, if the social distancing measures affected everyone?

This can be explained by the different motivations for the commission of the crime. In the case of crimes against property, the criminal’s main goal is to appropriate the resources of others -as in the case of the different types of robberies or businesses extortions-; however, because of the widespread unemployment caused by the pandemic and the suspension of must economic activities, common crime has also been suspended at some extent, in addition to the increase on the difficulty for thieves to commit their misdeeds because of close businesses and the reduction on people’s income.

In the case of homicides, the motivations are hugely different. Homicidal violence is associated with organized crime, which engages in other kinds of activities -different from common robbery- with greater scope and complexity levels, such as arms trafficking, smuggling, and mainly drug trafficking. In this sense, different strategies and specific treatment is required.

In Mexico, there has been an ongoing violence crisis for several years, however, based on the behavior of current crime figures, we could expect an increase in crime and violence after the economic crisis -caused by the COVID-19 pandemic- ends. History has shown that all economic crisis in the country are followed by an increase in violence and, in this case, the forecasts are not different.

2017 broke the record as the most violent year in Mexico’s recent history, and year after year this number has been exceeded. Unfortunately, everything indicates that 2020 will, once again exceed the figures. Consequently, as an attempt to combat the situation, the Federal Government decided to utilize the Armed Forces to carry out Public Security tasks -as it had been done during the last to presidential terms-, while the structure of the National Guard (GN) solidifies. Without a doubt, after COVID-19 and the resulting economic crisis end, the main challenge for the federal, state and local authorities is and will continue to be the insecurity and violence crises, a curve that for 20 years the government has not manage to flatten.

* Arturo Ávila Anaya, IBN/B Analitycs President and National Security Expert by Harvard (NIS).
@ArturoAvila_mx

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